Well…as the song lyrics say, “How you like me now?”   

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/06/25/congresswoman-raises-red-flag-hezbollah-cartel-nexus-border/

The above link confirms and now “mainstreams” what I, and others like Hugh Hewitt, have been identifying and addressing for years. In an article I wrote nearly two years ago, I specifically addressed the nature of the ungoverned spaces in Mexico, and the emerging potential for a significantly threatening nexus between Islamic Jihadists, specifically Hezbollah and Al Qaeda, in the increasingly unstable US-Mexican border region. It read, in part;

“The greater regional and geo-strategic ramifications [of an unstable border situation with Mexico] begin to cast and define “ominous” in a much darker shadow. If Mexico was in fact “failed”, this situation alone would now attract the “Who’s Who” of America’s enemies or those more charmingly referred to as “Strategic Competitors”, to the wounded animal that was Mexico. This chaos and instability that would ensue in a quasi-failed Mexico is just the ripe and fertile conditions in which terrorist organizations such as Al Qaida, Hezbollah, and others thrive and metastasize”

This was written nearly two years ago!

This takes us to a concept in the discussion of international security affairs I will call the “Nth Degree.” Basically, this thrusts any aspect of a crisis, challenge, or course of action in the global or regional sphere, and brings it through to its most logical conclusion where it is given a freefall trajectory, and where Occam’s razor meets the “Worst Case Scenario”.  The probability of such a scenario becomes exponentially greater as it gains momentum. If we take a “failed state” in Mexico to the Nth Degree, as two recent reports from both the CIA and the Department of Defense ominously warned, we, the US, could be subjected to an international crisis and regional conflagration that will have only been witnessed in the recent conflicts in the Middle East, Former Yugoslavia, Africa, and natural disaster proportions, such as Katrina flooding and Indonesian Tsunamis.  The sheer magnitude of the potential of fleeing refugees coming from Mexico into the southern US is in and of itself, daunting. (we are concerned, rightfully, about the impact of the BP spill on the “Gulf States” but has consideration been given to the impact on Eastern Mexico and the damage to an already depressed economy and the impact on the economic, political, social, and migratory aspects of the spill there?)  As I mentioned during an earlier interview with Hugh Hewitt nearly two years ago, as the situation deteriorates (and add in an earthquake, Hurricane, or, a massive ecological disaster, say, and oil spill), we, naturally, would be pressured to open federally supported humanitarian camps, to simply drain the burden of cities and towns such as San Diego, Phoenix, El Paso, Laredo, and many smaller townships and counties that would be overwhelmed with the accelerating and massive onslaught of Mexicans fleeing north.  In turn, many Americans in the border regions might be compelled to leave their homes and livelihoods, as with this onslaught would come social and community disruption, potential disease and famine, increased criminality, and initially chaos as all of the federal, state, and regional authorities would try to absorb the impact and magnitude of this “Nth Degree” (we are seeing the political, social, and demographic friction as Arizona has passed legislation to try to address, quell, and mitigate the threat of illegal aliens, coupled with the Cartels, and potentially Hezbollah military influence therein). This could cause ripples in the fabric of much of US society, the economy, and demographics as more and more people would conclude the situation in the “south” is untenable, and the north would see an influx of more mobile, less economically tied residents shift north. Also, as it began to deteriorate, many more established Americans and residents might conclude the nature of the severe and cataclysmic shift in migrating refugees is too great a risk to remain where they are, and they would take drastic and expedited steps to better their conditions and move elsewhere. It doesn’t take much for one to see how that would have devastating effects on the economy, workforce, and the challenges, draining of resources, and manpower burden to which the state and local authorities would be subjected.

It gets worse. Described above is the initial and internal disruption and burdening chaos that might be witnessed just from the mass migration of Mexicans displaced from a failed state, or a Narco-Terror led Coup or de facto control of the Mexican nation-state or great portions of the border region. The greater regional and geo-strategic ramifications begin to cast and define “ominous” in a much darker shadow. If Mexico was in fact “failed”, this situation alone would now attract the “Who’s Who” of America’s enemies or those more charmingly referred to as “Strategic Competitors”, to the wounded animal that was Mexico. This chaos and instability that would ensue in a failed Mexico is just the ripe and fertile conditions in which terrorist organizations such as Al Qaida, Hezbollah, and others thrive and metastasize (i.e. Afghanistan, and the ungoverned spaces in western Pakistan, North Africa in the Trans Sahel, East Africa, and Mindanao in the Southern Philippines, not to mention new and yet created other factions and groups rising from the instability). Of course, the devastation of a quasi-failed Mexico wouldn’t only have affects that vectored north; the southern border with Central American states, and northern South America could be greatly affected as well, causing displacement and disruption in their fragile social, economic, and political structures due to those migrating to the south, if conditions were truly at the “Nth Degree”. Even if an “Al Qaida” like group wasn’t directly in Mexico, it could find a much easier and safer haven in a failed or near failed Guatemala or Honduras, or even Venezuela, where the Iranian Quds forces and Hezbollah have been reported to operate and exercise. And with the several hundreds of thousands of displaced peoples coming north, how would we be able to track hard core and determined terror cells exploiting the chaos that will have transpired? Now America will have a flood gate opened, not for just the countless number of Mexicans fleeing tyranny, bloodshed, and carnage brought on by a failed or Narco-State, but now people who will have infiltrated for the sole purpose of doing us massive harm. And the conditions couldn’t be more conducive in a situation like that.

As for the more Strategic Competitors, our “friends” the Russians, Chinese, the Cubans, and the Venezuelans would have to take on a Real Politick imperative and position themselves for the ultimate prize Mexico offers; Oil and Gas reserves! Experts estimate there are 30 billion barrels or more beneath the floor of the Gulf of Mexico in its leading oil field, Cantarell. That is a geo-political prize worthy of large international reptiles like the Chinese and the Russians to take unprecedented steps to take advantage of a weakened US due to this conflagration and chaos. We already see the Russians vying for port access and utilization in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Mexico rivaling Cold War aspirations, so why would they not pursue this line of geo-strategic positioning whilst the US focuses on its internal struggles. And in the genre’ of our old Cold War adversaries, it would not be unheard of, or uncalled for, on their part to “fish the muddy waters” as an old Russian Proverb craftily illustrates. This would be a potential Russian course of action that conducts a wide scale tacit or direct and continued instability operation on the US border that would make the former Cuban aspirations of Russian influence against America during the Cold War seem like trying to influence from the surface of the moon. An occupied and distracted US is just what an imperial minded Russia seeking hegemony might want to try and regain old prestige, potential advances, and control in former spheres of influence, such as Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Black Sea. As for the Chinese, lest we forget that the Panama Canal belongs to them. It is one of eight of the most strategically important maritime choke points on Earth. Their extensive shipping and trade is paramount to their survival and the Canal is paramount to that trade. They would not sit back idly as that prize was threatened. Even if their “Blue Water” power projection capability is not state of the art, they have plenty of money and influence to have proxies wage defense operations on their behalf in the Western Hemisphere to safeguard their objectives against the West.

So as the average American is being told this is a “drug war”, and it is simply about the Cartels and inter-rivalry violence, they are not being given the entire truth and potential ramifications as to the severity and wide ranging impact on American National Security. Understanding that this is the “Nth Degree”, a lot of things would need to happen, or not happen, in a particular sequence, and players would need to act rationally amidst the chaos…however, if the US National Command Authority doesn’t recognize this as a serious threat to US National Security in a way other than a Law Enforcement challenge in the long term, then we may see a partial or full extent of a degree of threat against America, for which the end we cannot afford to reach.