On June 3, 2009, Sara Carter from the Washington Times wrote a piece highlighting a video clip of a Kuwait dissident and widely known Al-Qaeda recruiter, Abdullah al-Nafisi. ( http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jun/03/al-qaeda-eyes-bio-attack-via-mexico-border/ ) In that clip, al-Nafisi emphasizes the desire and alleged capabilities of Al Qaeda and/or other Jihadist groups or surrogates to exploit the porous and mainly open border between Mexico and the US to smuggle and detonate a weapon of mass destruction in the form of a biological, radiological, or chemical agent. For years, intelligence officials have considered this scenario, and frankly it, at first blush, appears feasible and quite frightening to contemplate. In my government, academic, and now private sector capacity, research, experience, and knowledge, this is right at the top of Doomsday scenarios and certainly can keep folks like us up at night. While I was writing, producing, and presenting Threatwatch, an eight episode radio series on Global Security and Crisis Management, I dedicated an entire hour to a hypothetical scenario where Jihadist terrorists attempt to smuggle radiological material from the Former Soviet Union, and detonate it in the San Diego Metropolitan area. Bottom line, this is not a pretty thought, and quickly becomes nightmarish as we walk the “Operational Dog” as to the feasibility of such an event. It makes for good radio, and is certainly in line with Hollywood’s rendition and perspective of this kind of sinister event that would make the writers and producers of “24” perk with interest. However, just how feasible is something like that? In a post 9-11 environment, how concerned should we be, and just how vulnerable are we to such a brazen and unholy act?
As a Chief Executive of The Agemus Group (www.agemusgroup.com), it might be quite self-serving to run around and announce “Yes it is official, I saw Chicken Little, and he just ran by screaming the sky is, in fact, falling…” I am not quite prepared to announce that, but I am comfortable to say, “I think he might be strapping his cleats on….” As the Times article points to, there is ample evidence throughout the last 7 years to prove Al-Qaeda’s desire to acquire such weapons and methodologies to kill as many innocent Americans, or other Westerners, as possible. I don’t think any rational observer can refute the 9-11 Hijackers would have been more than willing to have killed ten times, even a hundred times more people that day if they had the capability to do so. So when al-Nafisi boasts about the desire to kill 300,000 people, he is clearly truthful and hopeful in this quest.
Leading to Pearl Harbor, we saw the Imperial Japanese utilize tens of thousands of men, millions of dollars of equipment and resources, craft complex and highly sensitive intelligence networks in Hawaii and through the Pacific to support years of planning that led to the deaths of over 3000 US military personnel. Though considered cowardly and sinister, it was a military strike, and waged on a military target. We retaliated as Admiral Yamamoto feared, “with a terrible resolve”… Prior to 9-11, 19 men, a handful of supporters and surrogates, bought thousands of dollars of airline tickets, some box cutters, and some new clothes, and were able to do something that was never successfully accomplished by any of our modern foes; attack the US Homeland and kill innocent citizens. The genius behind this simple and audacious act demonstrated the widening and breadth technology, coupled with the global nature of travel and communications can provide a small group of highly fanatical and dedicated terrorists can accomplish when their desire meets their capabilities. When that equation is balanced, that of desire and capability, the Jihadist mindset can conjure nightmare scenarios we can’t even begin to contemplate. So, in that context, I believe Ms. Carter’s article acts as a moment of pause for US defense and Homeland security professionals as they sift through the intelligence and sources that can observe, detect, indentify, and disrupt these once before unimaginable outcomes.
One aspect that gives me a modicum of solace in an otherwise awful future potential threat is the historically strained, yet reluctant bedfellows that are the US Intelligence Community (IC), and the Mexican power brokers, to possibly include the vaunted Drug Cartel Members. For years, many conspiracy folks and those believing the US government is omnipotent in its attempt to “police the world” have believed and floated unsubstantiated “evidence” that the CIA and the Mexican Drug Cartels have a symbiotic relationship that provides both with necessary core products that keep each organization in “business”; for the US and CIA, it is intelligence on would be terrorists in Latin American and Mexico specifically, and for the Cartels, it is an ability to move and operate with relative impunity in the manufacturing, distribution, and sales of their products. The conspiracy goes that as long as the Cartels continue to provide intelligence on “foreign entities” within Mexico, the US will perhaps “look the other way” when the Cartels are moving or conducting aspects of their operations in support of their nefarious ends. I am not entirely unconvinced that, though perhaps not official or formally agreed upon, there may be a low-level acknowledgement of mutually beneficial decisions that can, and probably do, play into this conspiracy notion. From a cold and callous “real politick” perspective, this may be a viable arrangement to ensure we do have eyes and ears on would be terrorists attempting to infiltrate and attack the US. The Cartels provide the most sophisticated and wide spread intelligence networks in Mexico, and they are more than often going to know in near real time if anyone, not of that local or regional caste, is in the area, especially doing or planning something illegal or shady. The cost, that of the tons of poison into our country in the form of drugs, is shameful and dangerous as it has and continues to rot and erode our youth and communities. Is this a proven relationship?...not that I am aware of, but it is not out of the realm of feasibility or precedence. The nexus between the CIA and the drug lords in Southeast Asia has been documented and investigated widely. (The Politics of Heroin in Southeast Asia, Alfred W. McCoy, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.) Having worked and operated in the US Intelligence Community, I am comfortable acknowledging and understanding we can not work, associate, or barter with those types of personalities one might find in the “Mormon Tabernacle Choir”, or the Baristas at Starbucks. The Cartels have a distinct desire and advantage identifying and reporting those things that both threaten their livelihood and market share, as the CIA has desire and advantages in ensuring their sources are not compromised or diminished…even if that source is an enemy on a different front.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, and the paradigm shift that was the Bi-Polar security arrangement of the Cold War, the traditional and long standing relationships and “lanes” freedom fighters, independence seekers, international “irritants” and non state actors maintained for fear of losing support and funding from their respective “mother ship”, either the US/NATO, or the Soviet Union/China, changed forever. The same “arrangement” certainly changed in Mexico, and we may be seeing the result, albeit delayed, as a function of Jihadists more embolden, US Intelligence Community less influential in Latin America, and the potential nexus of state actors, like Venezuela, Cuba, or Iran coupling with non-state Jihadists or traditional surrogates like Hezbollah, and new comers like Al-Qaeda. The question becomes, are the emerging powerbrokers in Latin America, and specifically in Mexico, willing and able to allow or tacitly support Jihadist operations against the US and accept or promote the ramifications of that support? We see a warming of Venezuela with Iran and Cuba, the re-emergence of the Russians in the Caribbean, and the aggressive and directed actions of the Chinese in both their economic and geo-political strides, as witnessed with their purchase of one of the most strategically vital spots in the world, the Panama Canal. We know Hezbollah has operated in Latin America for decades, most notably their terrorist act against a Jewish Cultural Center in Buenos Aries back in the early nineties. Even the Washington Times has reported the tacit nexus developing between the Cartels and Hezbollah. http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/mar/27/hezbollah-uses-mexican-drug-routes-into-us/ This nexus seems to fly in the face of the synergistic relationship that is the US IC and the Cartels and the “Intel for Permission arrangement” that is alleged by some. However, we need to accept that the Cartels are criminal elements that simply may be playing both the US and Hezbollah as their situation becomes more tenuous. It is our contention that the Cartels, if they had full knowledge or suspicion of an impending attack, would most likely not allow for a terrorist element to alter, deny, or negate their smuggling routes by making an area in that route completely impassible or unusable, or rendering the “market” invalid because their customers are now dying from anthrax or radiological poisoning.
In short, the Cartel Leadership are businessmen, and would most likely not ruin their customer base or supply routes if they had knowledge or intelligence that a major terror event would tip over their proverbial drug smuggling “apple cart”. The rub now becomes, do we rely on the Cartels for this information? Though there are certainly other sources in Latin America and Mexico for high quality intelligence, in the end, the Cartels maintain considerable power over resources, funding, and supply for most things illegal and nefarious. The technical means and expertise to construct, transfer, and initiate a complex attack using a WMD in the US via the Mexican Border over vast distances (transit to Latin America from the Middle East or Central Asia) is a planning “long pole” in the tent…that is a good thing...couple that with both the US surveillance and real politick of the Cartels perhaps not being so cozy with potential market share threats in the form of Hezbollah or Jihadist terror groups, i.e. AQ, adds to the complexity, difficulty and feasibility of such an attack. The idea that “White Supremacist Groups” would act as intermediaries for a non-White terrorist group pent on killing American’s indiscriminatingly seems to me, on the surface, a bit farfetched. Possible? Yes. Probable? Not really. It is much more likely that from sheer will on the part of those determined to kill us we might find attempts and operational planning for such an event...execution on the other hand is still very much a difficult and, though possible, improbable scenario. The thing that keeps me up at night is the fact that their are very cunning and sinister people right now working on closing that gap between possible and probable in willingness and ability to kill as many Americans as they can. More research, time, and scrutiny needs to be brought to the mix to properly analyze this potentially massive national security threat.