After dozens of security operation failures and compromising of senior Mexican Military, Law Enforcement, and Justice Officials by the well financed, well equipped, and sophisticated Drug Cartel operatives, the “good guys” got one in the Win Column with the recent bloodless arrest of a senior Sinaloa Drug Cartel Leader, Vincente Zambada. “Vicente Zambada allegedly became a top Sinaloa cartel leader last year, with control over logistics and authority to order assassinations of government authorities and rivals. He was arrested before dawn Wednesday at a home in an elite Mexico City neighborhood” the article reported. The article adds that the arrest of Zambada could deal a severe blow to the logistics, distribution, and potential viability of Cartel operations for the drug trade. Is this truly something that will make a significant impact on Cartel operations? Or is this head of the Hydra just primed to grow back, as so many others have done?

The Sinaloa Cartel has not been immune to the pressures of Mexican Security forces of late. Zambada’s father, Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, is a top leader of the Sinaloa Cartel as well, and has occupied a coveted spot on Mexico's Most Wanted list for years. Ismael Zambada's brother, Jesus Zambada, known as "The King," was apprehended a year ago in Mexico City and accused of smuggling cocaine and methamphetamines through the Mexico City airport.  Jesus is being investigated for allegedly participating in the killing of senior law enforcement officials in Mexico City. The other two known Sinaloa cartel leaders at large are Joaquin Guzman Loera and Ignacio Coronel Villarreal. It appears the Sinaloa Cartel has taken some heavy body shots in the past, yet has still been able to compromise and recruit senior Mexican Security and political figures, maintain and cultivate replacements for senior management positions within the Cartel, and maintain a level of terror, murder, and mayhem that continues to support and assist in the nefarious drug trade.  

The Mexicans can use a “good news” story in the continuing struggle of this monumental, tragic, and epic battle. Alas, I fear, though inspired that our neighbors to the south are continuing swinging, it is a drop in the proverbial bucket and doesn’t address the greater failure of a comprehensive front by all the tools of national power of the US in practical, non-politically correct, and effective collaboration with the Mexican security apparatus. I have written numerous articles as to the scope, depth, and severity of the de facto civil war raging in Mexico, and its direct potential consequences for US National Security. The formula is fairly clear.  The heads need to be cut off faster than they can grow. Only a comprehensive, military emphasized, intelligence supported, Joint Special Operations led approach in the spirit and intent of present counter-terror operations that are being conducted world wide will be able to thwart this menace and national threat in the short term. The US, in consultation with Mexican officials, can not continue to see this as a law enforcement -centric endeavor. If so, it will continue to be defeated by this sophisticated, well armed, well supported, influential, and devious adversary that possesses the organization and structure of a profitable multinational corporation, guided by intelligence the likes of the former KGB, with the weapons and logistics that would be the envy of any present threatening non-state actor, and funded by a GNP larger than most Latin American countries. Yet our National Command Authority still views this through a law enforcement prism.

Recently reported was the stand up of U.S. Northern Command to coordinate an interagency effort to address the “Mexican Issue”. We can only hope that there are planners and “Action Officers” in this process that will craft a strategy that focuses on a counter-terror approach, utilizing all the facets of this effort that have been fairly successful against Al Qaeda and others over the last eight years world wide.   Colleagues of mine in the Joint Special Operations community have often commented…”the most dangerous job in the world is being the number 3 in Al Qaeda…” that is because we have been merciless in our pursuit of key leadership personnel within Al Qaeda and AQ inspired groups in North Africa, Yemen, Philippines, and other places. If we can target and eliminate terrorists planning our demise from tens of thousands of miles away, why can we not go after the leadership that wreaks even greater and immediate havoc on the American, and Mexican, people, our children, our prosperity, and security? It is no secret that the Cartels Senior Leadership travels in entourages that reach US presidential proportions, with helicopters, 737s, armored vans, heavy weapons, encrypted communications, sophisticated counter surveillance and deception operations. Without disclosing any sensitive information, I would find it highly improbable that US intelligence assets, technical means, and human networks don’t have a bead on some senior Cartel leadership at any given moment. However, as was the case in the 1990s with the Clinton administration wanting to “build a case” for a law enforcement apprehension and prosecution of Bin Laden while he was “hiding” in Sudan, we have the means, precedence, and knowledge to take the fight to the Cartels now. It may be time for us to rethink our approach before the Hydra grows another head, and more innocent people are killed and US security remains threatened because of it.

After months of criticism by yours truly on the apparent lack of a comprehensive strategy on behalf of US National Security vis-à-vis the unprecedented violence in Mexico, today’s report is welcomed as a bright flicker in what otherwise seemed an ignorant, stalled, or non existent position. The report goes on to emphasize the interagency approach headed by US Northern Command in which several departments, most noted is the Department of Homeland Security, will participate in crafting and executing the security strategy planning process to thwart the spillover of violence already witnessed in several US cities and townships along the southern border, specifically highlighted in record violence in Phoenix, AZ.

            I have been critical in the US Government’s recent approach regarding Mexico because it has been steeped in a 1990s construct that viewed all issues Mexican in the prism of Law Enforcement and Trade. I have made the argument that in recent years, the situation in Mexico as brought on by the Drug Cartels is a de facto civil war, and can be viewed, in part, as a classic insurgency model. Additionally, with the vast numbers of desertions from the Mexican Federal Army having bolstered and supported the cartels with what is widely cited with as many as one hundred thousand former soldiers, including many US Special Operations trained Mexican operators creates a real and emerging threat of a hostile force on our southern border analogous to the numbers acknowledged for the FARC in Colombia in the 1990s, or presently Hezbollah, or Hamas in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria. The US has a number of Operational Plans, or OPLANS, that it develops and updates for potential world wide friction points, and Theater Level contingencies, but I am convinced, unfortunately, that operational plans regarding a large, well resourced, and hostile force on our immediate border is something our senior strategists and planners are scratching their heads on this very evening. Given the “interagency” approach to this menace gives me a moment of pause. Many of the other agencies that will be participating along with the Northern Command, frankly, have failed miserably in their departmental efforts to “win the drug war”, or “curb illegal immigration”, or “renew trade policy”...etc…etc…! I am certainly not advocating that this is strictly a military problem, thus we only seek a military solution, but there seems to be a tacit apprehension to look critically through the military prism as it relates to this civil war raging on our border.

            As I have mentioned in previous articles, this remains underreported given its potential magnitude and impact on US National Security. I had one reader comment on probability as to my concern of a complete failed state or implosion of Mexico as a viable state, or complete de facto dominance by the Cartels, or factions governing sections or regions of Mexico. That is very difficult to predict. I will say, as the Einsteinian saying goes, “The definition of insanity, is doing the same thing, over and over, and expecting change”, we certainly can not afford to continue to view Mexico in the same narrow light as we have the previous years. In the article by Reuters, Gen. Renuart, Commander of Northern Command is quoted, “The Mexican government is taking aggressive action to win. They are building momentum. I would not say they are losing”, when pressed whether the Mexicans were winning or not. I strongly believe, as the Cartels are able to operate and continue to harvest, transport, protect, and distribute their product, and collect their profits that dwarf some GNP of sovereign nations, and as the US provides minimal support in the form of the paltry Meridia Initiative while the Cartels flaunt their actions against the Mexican government with impunity, that can not be defined as a positive qualifier toward “victory.” We are not only losing the drug battle, we are not presently prepared to turn the tide, given the present atmosphere, historical precedent afforded Mexico and our unique trade position, and US political pressures from both sides of the aisle either with immigration reform or labor supply provisions.

Something will need to be done, and soon, or we will face a national crisis of immediate concern, both in proximity and scope, that will adversely affect our nation, its security, its economy, and its prosperity for years to come.

             Rasmussen Reports conducted a survey claiming 79% of the electorate would consider using US National Guard troops to tackle the increasing violence posed by Mexican Cartel violence amongst each other and the Federal and Regional Mexican Security Forces. This is significant since only two months ago, it was just over 50% supported such a move.

            This could be an indication of the budding awareness of the American people regarding the unprecedented levels of horrific violence committed in Mexico over the last two years. The death toll from Cartel related violence hovers between 5800 and 7000 people killed as a result of this spiraling menace, depending on the source.  Over one thousand people have died this year alone as to the de facto civil war raging to our immediate south.

            Though the new administration has taken some positive steps with its first few months, including a Justice Department crack down arresting over 800 suspected cartel supports nation wide, Homeland Security proposing strict rules and measures preventing both money from the sales of drugs, and high caliber weapons from the US transiting back to Mexico in support of the Cartels, President Obama has yet to deploy or initiate plans for a National Guard deployment. He did state if the violence bled into the US, he would consider such a deployment. However, that is analogous to trying to defuse a bomb….that has already gone off.

            I have tried to keep readers apprised of the ongoing and increasingly dangerous situation in Mexico that has gone substantively underreported. From more information please visit my blog at http://americansentry.blogtownhall.com/2009/03/16/mexico_and_the_nth_degree.thtml

Or you can hear my latest interview on Hugh Hewitt at:

http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/MediaPlayer/AudioPlayer.aspx?ContentGuid=e4bd2bda-9d54-4cef-8f96-4060c0afea1f

Well, as I commented months ago, it appears the Main Stream Media has finally awakened to the carnage, instability, and increasingly threatening situation in Mexico as a result of the ongoing and spiraling fighting between Cartel on Cartel, Cartel on Federal Forces, and Cartel-backed factions within the Federal Forces. It is evident that one can not watch any of the news networks or cable outlets without having a story on Mexico of late. This is encouraging.  However, this situation is a complex mesh of political, historical, economic, socio, security, and geo-strategic challenges and ongoing aspects both within and surrounding the Mexican state that could become a potential existential threat to the security of the US and the regional status quo of its legal and de facto borders.

            I recently had the privilege of being a guest on The Hugh Hewitt Show focusing on the present situation of violence and instability in Mexico (this was with my Global Security Consulting Firm hat on). Mr. Hewitt is an Award Winning interviewer, and he is incredibly astute in his line of questioning and pursuit of a worthy and enlightening discussion. He pointed out that this crisis in Mexico has basically gone underreported. This is true. Even with the present emergence of US media attention and now US government initiatives toward the crisis (including, the Meridia Initiative, JCS Chairman ADM Mullen’s recent visit to Latin America, SecState Clinton to Mexico next week, and Homeland Security initiating a cracking down on arms and money flowing back to Mexico from the US), it is in fact worse than the average American understands. The Mexican government has also taken drastic and broad steps to try to quell the violence by sending tens of thousands of troops to the border areas in recent days, and into major Mexican cities such as Juarez and Tijuana. If there were tens of thousands of troops moving in anywhere else on the planet, Ukraine, or the Middle East, it would be Breaking News in the style when “breaking” news was actually a crisis, and not whether Lindsay Lohan is back in rehab or not.

I believe as we began to unpeel the ongoing situation in Mexico during the interview, I sensed that Mr. Hewitt was beginning to truly grasp the gravity, complexity, and severity of this increasing national threat (remembering this is a very smart and plugged-in guy, who has extensive contacts within the Security Policy arena, and Senior US Government Officials!).  Two key issues I believe struck a cord with Mr. Hewitt, and set the tone for our discussion. They were;

1)                          That there have been over 150,000 deserters from the Mexican national Army over the past couple of years as a result of the Cartel’s siphoning highly trained military manpower and willing foot soldiers (resulting in, as some estimates declare, over 100,000 Cartel Soldiers with sophisticated weapons, communications gear, and military style logistics and intelligence support; A de facto Rebel Army on our border the likes of The FARC in Colombia or any Middle East Opposition and Terrorist Organization, not dissimilar to Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Syrian Fascist Movements in Lebanon, albeit fractured and prone to severe infighting),

And…

2)                           If Mexico were to implode as a failed state (defined as the Federal Government no longer exercises control over a majority of its governed), why do we think we could stop hundreds of thousands of refugees, if not millions, fleeing north if we can’t stop tens of thousands trickling over now. This would change the demographic, regional, economic, and political landscape of the southern US in irrevocable ways, thus impacting the existential nature of our Union as we know it.

As we wound down the interview, he exclaimed, “Well, Frank Dowse, on that sobering note….(and we both fell into slight nervous laughter)..But it hung there for a moment as I described the potential ramifications and probability as I understand and fathom them from my sources, experience in crisis management and strategic security analysis, education, and assessment of the situation in Mexico. As I mentioned in the interview, I did not want to be the proverbial “Chicken Little” on this subject, however, like the Boy who cried Wolf, there eventually was the Wolf that came to the village.

I am grateful for Mr. Hewitt’s insight and desire to bring this situation to a greater level of granularity than just the “drive by” media flashing border pictures of sporadic firefights, scattered bodies in the streets, and feign warnings to scantly clad coeds splashing around in pools of water/humans in various states of hedonism called “Spring Break”. I am thankful to Mr. Hewitt because he has the intellectual faculty to bring this to light in a cogent and timely way, and with great clarity. However, due to the nature of time constraints, we did not broach the other equally as disturbing ramifications of this emerging “Wolf” at our door step.

This takes us to a concept in the discussion of international security affairs I will call the “Nth Degree.” Basically, this thrusts any aspect of a crisis, challenge, or course of action in the global or regional sphere, and brings it through to its most logical conclusion where it is given a freefall trajectory, and where Occam’s razor meets the “Worst Case Scenario”.  The probability of such a scenario becomes exponentially greater as it gains momentum. If we take a failed state in Mexico to the Nth Degree, as two recent reports from both the CIA and the Department of Defense ominously warned, we, the US, could be subjected to an international crisis and regional conflagration that will have only been witnessed in the recent conflicts in the Middle East, Former Yugoslavia, Africa, and natural disaster proportions, such as Katrina flooding and Indonesian Tsunamis.  The sheer magnitude of the potential of fleeing refugees coming from Mexico into the southern US is in and of itself, daunting. As I mentioned during the interview, we, naturally, would be pressured to open federally supported humanitarian camps, to simply drain the burden of cities and towns such as San Diego, Phoenix, El Paso, Laredo, and many smaller townships and counties that would be overwhelmed with the accelerating and massive onslaught of Mexicans fleeing north.  In turn, many Americans in the border regions might be compelled to leave their homes and livelihoods, as with this onslaught would come social and community disruption, potential disease and famine, increased criminality, and initially chaos as all of the federal, state, and regional authorities would try to absorb the impact and magnitude of this “Nth Degree”. This would cause ripples in the fabric of much of US society, the economy, and demographics as more and more people would conclude the situation in the “south” is untenable, and the north would see an influx of more mobile, less economically tied residents shift north. Also, as it began to deteriorate, many more established Americans and residents might conclude the nature of the severe and cataclysmic shift in migrating refugees is too great a risk to remain where they are, and they would take drastic and expedited steps to better their conditions and move elsewhere. It doesn’t take much for one to see how that would have devastating effects on the economy, workforce, and the challenges, draining of resources, and manpower burden to which the state and local authorities would be subjected.

It gets worse. Described above is the initial and internal disruption and burdening chaos that might be witnessed just from the mass migration of Mexicans displaced from a failed state, or a Narco-Terror led Coup or de facto control of the Mexican nation-state. The greater regional and geo-strategic ramifications begin to cast and define “ominous” in a much darker shadow. If Mexico was in fact “failed”, this situation alone would now attract the “Who’s Who” of America’s enemies or those more charmingly referred to as “Strategic Competitors”, to the wounded animal that was Mexico. This chaos and instability that would ensue in a failed Mexico is just the ripe and fertile conditions in which terrorist organizations such as Al Qaida, Hezbollah, and others thrive and metastasize (i.e. Afghanistan, and the ungoverned spaces in western Pakistan, North Africa in the Trans Sahel, East Africa, and Mindanao in the Southern Philippines, not to mention new and yet created other factions and groups rising from the instability). Of course, the devastation of a failed Mexico wouldn’t only have affects that vectored north; the southern border with Central American states, and northern South America could be greatly affected as well, causing displacement and disruption in their fragile social, economic, and political structures due to those migrating to the south, if conditions were truly at the “Nth Degree”. Even if an “Al Qaida” like group wasn’t directly in Mexico, it could find a much easier and safer haven in a failed or near failed Guatemala or Honduras. And with the several hundreds of thousands of displaced peoples coming north, how would we be able to track hard core and determined terror cells exploiting the chaos that will have transpired. Now America will have a flood gate opened, not for just the countless number of Mexicans fleeing tyranny, bloodshed, and carnage brought on by a failed or Narco-State, but now people who will have infiltrated for the sole purpose of doing us massive harm. And the conditions couldn’t be more conducive in a situation like that.

As for the more Strategic Competitors, our “friends” the Russians, Chinese, the Cubans, and the Venezuelans would have to take on a Real Politick imperative and position themselves for the ultimate prize Mexico offers; Oil and Gas reserves! Experts estimate there are 30 billion barrels or more beneath the floor of the Gulf of Mexico in its leading oil field, Cantarell. That is a geo-political prize worthy of large international reptiles like the Chinese and the Russians to take unprecedented steps to take advantage of a weakened US due to this conflagration and chaos. We already see the Russians vying for port access and utilization in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Mexico rivaling Cold War aspirations, so why would they not pursue this line of geo-strategic positioning whilst the US focuses on its internal struggles. And in the genre’ of our old Cold War adversaries, it would not be unheard of, or uncalled for, on their part to “fish the muddy waters” as an old Russian Proverb craftily illustrates. This would be a potential Russian course of action that conducts a wide scale tacit or direct and continued instability operation on the US border that would make the former Cuban aspirations of Russian influence against America during the Cold War seem like trying to influence from the surface of the moon. An occupied and distracted US is just what an imperial minded Russia seeking hegemony might want to try and regain old prestige, potential advances, and control in former spheres of influence, such as Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Black Sea. As for the Chinese, lest we forget that the Panama Canal belongs to them. It is one of eight of the most strategically important maritime choke points on Earth. Their extensive shipping and trade is paramount to their survival and the Canal is paramount to that trade. They would not sit back idly as that prize was threatened. Even if their “Blue Water” power projection capability is not state of the art, they have plenty of money and influence to have proxies wage defense operations on their behalf in the Western Hemisphere to safeguard their objectives against the West.

So as the average American is being told this is a “drug war”, and it is simply about the Cartels and inter-rivalry violence, they are not being given the entire truth and potential ramifications as to the severity and wide ranging impact on American National Security. Understanding that this is the “Nth Degree”, a lot of things would need to happen, or not happen, in a particular sequence, and players would need to act rationally amidst the chaos…however, if the US National Command Authority doesn’t recognize this as a serious threat to US National Security in a way other than a Law Enforcement challenge in the long term, then we may see a partial or full extent of a degree of threat against America, for which the end we can not afford to reach.

The Washington Post is reporting that the National Security Council will be expanding its traditional role as the conduit for strategic and international issues under the new administration with a “sweeping overhaul” of its authority, scope, and size. Retired Marine General, James L. Jones, appointed as the new National Security Advisor will head the operation and be the principle link for national security advice to the President. This is said to avoid the “back channels” that the Bush administration was accused of using when competing agencies, including the Office of the Vice President, were alleged to have “unilateral influence and making policy out of view of others”, the report stated.

Other changes will include an extended reach of the NSC far beyond the scope and range of the conventional and traditional foreign policy arena. It touts a new kind of “elasticity”, citing a redrawing of organizational maps, and utilizing representatives and other personnel from several agencies to tackle issues on a functional, regional, or crisis basis. Though it is not uncommon for internal changes as to the procedures, players, and agenda to fluctuate from administration to administration, this change is the widest in the history of the NSC since its inception that created it with the National Security Act of 1947.  

This new change appears to echo a familiar construct for the new National Security Advisor, General Jones. While he was the NATO Commander and Commander of US Forces in Europe, his headquarters redesigned the traditional “J” Staffs, a more traditional, conventional staff organization based on the historical Napoleonic General Staff, to a more flexible, interagency, task oriented, “action team” approach, designated the Planning and Operations Center. Instead of the traditional functions going to the Chief of Staff through a more stove piped routing for information and coordination, the “interagency” construct would allow Operational Planning Teams to emerge as tasks, functions, regions, and crisis are addressed and take on a scope and effort of their own. This process would look more like an expanding and contracting wheel, with spokes emerging and receding as crises and events appear and subside. Other issues that are more long term or require continued vigilance in their design will have ongoing teams and principals and can add or reduce expertise as warranted.   These “action teams” would be made up of subject matter experts in political, military, economic/financial/, social, informational/intelligence, and infrastructure issues across regional and time lines.

Having been on the ground floor for some of the planning and development of the Planning and Operations Center concept as it was implemented at the European Command under General Jones, I can say from an operational and functional standpoint, this is a long time in coming at the NSC and modernizes and enlightens the institution for a wider spectrum of security challenges in the 21^st Century.  What I find interesting, however, is I’m not sure, as competent and capable General Jones is in the restructuring and relevance awareness of the new construct, if the political machinations will be any less …well, political. The Bush administration was vilified for having “expanded” powers, yet this expansion dwarfs any previous realignment at the NSC. The report underscored it would be Jones who was the conduit and the final advisor for security matters to the President, however, DoD, CIA, State, Homeland Security, FBI, all have executive mandates as well, and all play a vital role in the shaping and crafting of these policies...and they all have political appointees to run them. There already exists some unanswered questions regarding the current Vice President’s role vis-à-vis’ the State Department under Ms. Clinton. Who is the “foreign policy” lead given Mr. Obama proclaimed Mr. Biden as his “go to guy” for all things foreign policy related?

 As for the execution and oversight of this new construct, I am completely confident General Jones will have it running both effectively and efficiently, and with as much transparency as he can apply. As for it being any less “political”, or threatened by powerbroker agendas, is yet to be seen.