Three sources underscore the severity of the situation in Mexico and its potential near term and far reaching effects to US National Security

As our operations wind down from the successes in Iraq, and the National Command Authority is ramping up our presence in Afghanistan with an additional 17000 combat forces, little has been addressed in the mainstream policy wonkery about Mexico's instability and brush with Civil War between the brave, but by all measures ineffectual, Mexican security and law enforcement forces, and the ruthless, well funded, well equipped, and increasingly brash Drug Cartels. I have been monitoring this for several weeks, and there are those within the periphery of National Strategy and Policy that recognize this as a serious emerging problem, but is just now getting some greater play within the Mainstream Media. What coverage it does get focuses on the crime and corruption aspects and doesn't link the severity and scope as a National Security issue for the US. I am more and more convinced that this is in fact a serious challenge to US national security, and three recent reports substantiate my position.

The first of these predictions that got considerable play back in January came from the outgoing Director of the CIA, Gen. Michael Hayden. He commented in numerous interviews that the CIA concluded that after a potential development of a nuclear weapon from Iran, the possibility and ramifications of Mexico failing as a state as a result of the inability of the Federal government quelling the violence perpetrated by the Cartels in their continued fight for smuggling routes and market share was the second most threatening issue to US National Security. With Al Qaeda lurking around, having found proof of their desire to weaponize a biological or chemical agent to unleash on innocent Americans, let alone a dirty bomb, that is quite a statement on Hayden's part...and ominous.

The second such report was from the Department of Defense in the form of the 2008 Joint Operating Environment Report, or JOE. It concluded that a failed state in Pakistan, the chance of nuclear technology or weapons falling into the hands of terrorists, was most disconcerting. The JOE, however, listed Mexico as a failed state was also the number two threat to US National Security. (http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2008/JOE2008.pdf)

The third, and in my assessment, the most concise and telling (at least in an unclassified venue) was a recent trip to Mexico and a report conducted by retired Army General, Barry McCaffery in December 2008 while he attended the International Forum of Intelligence and Security Specialists which acts as an advisory board to the Mexican Federal Law Enforcement leadership. ( http://www.mccaffreyassociates.com/pdfs/Mexico_AAR_-_December_2008.pdf)  Though McCaffery's report goes beyond the standard USG reporting that is swaddled in a law enforcement perspective, it has some stark and convincing statistics and conclusions that highlight this issue, for me anyways, as a national Security challenge, and beyond the single scope approach as a law enforcement challenge specifically relating to the drug trade. The report states:

The Mexican State is engaged in an increasingly violent, internal struggle against heavily armed narco-criminal cartels that have intimidated the public, corrupted much of law enforcement, and created an environment of impunity to the law.

• Thousands are being murdered each year. Drug production, addiction, and smuggling are rampant. The struggle for power among drug cartels has resulted in chaos in the Mexican states and cities along the US-Mexico border. Drug-related assassinations and kidnappings are now common-place occurrences throughout the country.

• Squad-sized units of the police and Army have been tortured, murdered, and their decapitated bodies publicly left on display. The malignancy of drug criminality now contaminates not only the 2000 miles of cross-border US communities but stretches throughout the United States in more than 295 US cities.

 It goes on:

The United States has provided only modest support to the Government of Mexico to date. The bold $400 million/year Merida initiative conceived by President Bush with both Canadian and Mexican Presidential participation was barely approved by the US Congress after a divisive and insulting debate.

• The proposed U.S. Government spending in support of the Government of Mexico is a drop in the bucket compared to what we have spent in Iraq and Afghanistan (these foreign wars have consumed $700 billion dollars and resulted in 36,000 US military killed and wounded). Yet the stakes in Mexico are enormous. We cannot afford to have a narco state as a neighbor.

Also:

The incoming Obama Administration must immediately focus on the dangerous and worsening problems in Mexico, which fundamentally threaten US national security. Before the next eight years are past – the violent, warring collection of criminal drug cartels could overwhelm the institutions of the state and establish de facto control over broad regions of northern Mexico.

• A failure by the Mexican political system to curtail lawlessness and violence could result of a surge of millions of refugees crossing the US border to escape the domestic misery of violence, failed economic policy, poverty, hunger, joblessness, and the mindless cruelty and injustice of a criminal state.

This I agree with wholeheartedly, and have been trying to shape the discussion that this is a terrorism issue, and not a simple criminal or law enforcement challenge. McCaffery powerfully notes: Mexico is not confronting dangerous criminality--- it is fighting for survival against narco-terrorism. The report goes on to convincing list the challenges the Mexican Leadership has in the coming years, and why Mexico is so vital to US national security.

Also, McCaffery reports at length about crime and corruption, highlighting heinous crimes in the form of kidnapping, assaults, contract killings, and of course the pervasive nature of graft, corruption and classic espionage utilized by the Cartels to infiltrate security and law enforcement agencies at the highest levels. He illustates:

Corruption is pervasive and ruins the trust among Mexican law enforcement institutions at local, state, and Federal level. Corruption reaches into the US Embassy with a DEA Mexican national employee recently arrested for being an agent of the Sinaloa Cartel. He was corrupted by a $450,000.00 bribe. Six high-ranking law enforcement officials have recently been arrested and the current and former Director of the Interpol Office in Mexico indicted. (This is a painful personal reminder of the 1997 arrest of the Mexican Drug Czar, General Gutierrez Rebollo, discovered to be working as an agent of the Juarez cartel.)

In an area where the US is completely complicit is the "reverse" smuggling and massive arms transfer from US arms dealers and retailers to the Cartel Members. Not only is this disturbing, but begs the question on how our own Homeland Security can justify border security if we can't even stop the flow of military style weapons to the Cartels in Mexico, that kill Mexican Authorities. The report cites: 

Mexican law enforcement authorities and soldiers face heavily armed drug gangs with high-powered military automatic weapons. Perhaps 90% of these weapons are smuggled across the US border. They are frequently purchased from licensed US gun dealers in Texas, Arizona, and California. AK-47 assault rifles are literally bought a hundred at a time and illegally brought into Mexico. Mexican authorities routinely seize BOXES of unopened automatic military weapons. The confiscation rates by Mexican law enforcement of hand grenades, RPG’s, and AK-47’s are at the level of wartime battlefield seizures. It is hard to understand the seeming indifference and incompetence of US authorities at state and Federal level to such callous disregard for a national security threat to a neighboring democratic state. We would consider it an act of warfare from a sanctuary state if we were the victim.

The bottom line---the US is ineffective and unresponsive to Mexican concerns about weapons, bulk cash, and precursor chemicals flowing south into Mexico from the United States--- with a blow-torch effect on the security of the Mexican people.

 He cites another statement made by the Council on Hemispheric Affairs that brings home the immense and almost insurmountable challenge the Mexican Federal Authorities face:

"Due to pervasive corruption at the highest levels of the Mexican Government, and the almost effortless infiltration of the porous security forces by the cartel, an ultimate victory by the state is uncertain."

McCaffery calls for the US to face this ominous and increasingly dangerous task by committing more to the Merida Initiative (450 million in aid to the Mexican Authorities for combating the Drug Cartels), but notes it is woefully under funded and misdirected.

One aspect that I believe is not considered, and that I am becoming more and more convinced of, is a larger strategic objective the Drug Cartels may be targeting: Mexico's Oil Reserves. Mexico is a leading oil exporter, and possesses huge deposits of natural gas. As long as Mexico remains in a quasi-failed, or at least gridlocked, state, it can not harness this great resource to its fullest potential. Nor can the Cartels continue to use murder and extortion in the long term strategy, as it will become more and more ineffective as programs and policies implemented to support Mexico from the US become more and more widely accepted, and neccessary. As threatening as they are to us, we possess advantages as well as we become more incline to tackle this severe problem. The Cartels may be able to position themselves to broker an amenable long term arrangement with the Mexican Leadership where they begin to tone down the drug trade, as lucrative as it is, and begin to legitimize their operations in the form of greater control of the oil.

I will keep my eye on this, and continue to observe and report when applicable.

The Mainstream Media is now fathoming this epidemic of violence in Mexico, and there is much speculation as to the impact it has real time on US National Security. A failed state in Mexico, as feared by the recent Joint Force's Command "Joint Operating Environment" report, would expose the US to threats and risk heretofore not fathomed by US security strategists. This is unprecedented in its scope and near term effects to American prosperity. THIS MUST BE ADDRESSED SOON. It will be interesting to see if it gets any mention in the President's Congressional Address this evening.

CNN’s Navarrette argues for timely reform on immigration, but places those advocating law abiding enforcement as “restrictionists”, and appears numb to the notion of fairness.

Ruben Navarrette is an editorial Board Member from the San Diego Times Tribune, and contributing commentator for CNN. He has written a commentary urging President Obama that the “time is right” for immigration reform (http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/20/navarrette.immigration/index.html).

It doesn’t take much, however, to see Mr. Navarrette’s attempt to appear “common sense”, and “middle of the road” is anything but.

In his commentary, Mr. Navarrette early on places those in the “debate” on “reform” as either “advocates” or “restrictionists”. In his description throughout the article, the advocates receive such accolades as “comprehensive”, “middle of the road”, alluding to a “measured” and “common sense” approach. The “restrictionists”, however, are depicted as not wanting any reform, bent on “work place raids”, “deportation” and “limited” in their scope. He describes one "restrictionist", the Sheriff of Maricopa County, as “clownish” in his approach, and Former AZ governor Janet Napolitano’s former call for a state of emergency in Arizona as an act of “hyperbole”.

Apparently, Mr. Navarrette has not been following the spiraling violence in northern Mexico and its increasing potential impact on US prosperity and national security. (Isn’t he in San Diego?) I would refer him to the number of articles written on this weblog underscoring the nature and status of ongoing, widening, and deepening unprecedented violence, its precipitation of increased illegal immigration, and the ancillary effects of crime, fraud, trafficking of drugs, arms, and humans, and its ramifications to US security.

Mr. Navarrette calls for “earned” legal immigration as an aspect to his concept of “reform”. This one, I must confess, hits a little close to home. My Mother-in-Law is a legal resident in the US. She legally immigrated nearly 5 years ago. It has been quite challenging for our family to provide adequate and worthwhile health care and other support needs. She is, like many of our other immigrants, a very hard worker, diligent, and wanting to succeed in the great opportunity that is America. As the illegal immigration crisis grows, we sit on the sidelines as big radical advocates like La Raza, and other tacit support agents of illegal immigrant rights sound off, like Mr. Navarrette. I see a very un-American trait developing from these groups within this so called “debate”….cutting in line!

In a country where it is an unspoken rule, and people can take great offense when one cuts in line, at the movies, at the DMV, the gas station, the grocery store, it is unconscionable to me as an American to watch advocate groups, like La Raza, talk about awarding a group of people who broke the law to come here with a coveted and highly desired status of “American”, while there are hundreds of thousands, if not millions of would be Americans who are penalized for following and adhering to the rules. That is not only unfair, it is un-American. Not the best approach for a people advocating to become Americans. Of course, I am sure I will be vilified for being a jingoistic nativist, or worse, racist, simply because I am advocating one waits their turn in line, while wanting to preserve American prosperity and security in the process. So much for "playing by the rules”.

Nexus of Arms Trafficking, Drug Smuggling, and Piracy in East Africa Fertile Ground for Terror Groups to Thrive

Associated Press reports "Insufficient" evidence may force US Navy to return suspected Pirates to Somalia. (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,492784,00.html)

American Sentry way ahead: The Term "Civil War" is more and more prevalent when referring to Mexico

Over the past few weeks, I have been commenting on the spiraling violence in Mexico. I was recently on the Fox Business News Network in my Agemus Group capacity (www.agemusgroup.com) commenting on the nature of the violence, and that we can say with greater confidence that Mexico is now in a de facto civil war. Below is my discussion on FBN about this very subject (see link)

http://www.foxbusiness.com/video/index.html?playerId=videolandingpage&streamingFormat=FLASH&referralObject=3570641&referralPlaylistId=1292d14d0e3afdcf0b31500afefb92724c08f046

I have had a number of colleagues and friends who know what I do for a living ask me if I had seen the movie "Taken". It is the story of a father, whose daughter convinces him she is going to Paris with a friend to stay with a family of friends. He is reluctant, and leery of two teenage girls staying in Paris with "friends". He vies for her love, however, with that of his ex-wife, who is now married to a very wealthy businessman. He discovers the ex-wife, along with the daughter have not told him the "whole " truth, and that she is in fact not "staying" in Paris, but is actually following a European tour of the band, U2. This angers the father even more, but he finally, and regretfully, submits to his daughter's desire, and signs the paperwork for her to leave the country to go on her much romanticized trip. Things go terribly wrong when she and her friend are targeted for a sex slave trafficking ring in Paris, and are abducted. The Hollywood catch is, he is a former special operator for the military/CIA (not clearly defined), and is probably the last man who's daughter they needed to target.

As discussed, I am monitoring the increasing and expanding levels of violence in Mexico. The Agemus Group (www.agemusgroup.com), through contacts and networks globally, intersects with sources, information, and entities that have access to or contact with high level individuals and officials dealing in national security, intelligence, law enforcement, and the militaries in both the US and internationally. Much of the reporting is open source verifiable, yet the sources remain anonymous. Below is an open source article corroborating our sourcing from the Dallas Morning News. (http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/world/mexico/stories/DN-juarez_07int.ART.State.Edition1.4c2d0a9.html)

            However, with the increase of murder, mayhem, and terror exhibited last year alone throughout Mexico, with over 6000 confirmed deaths directly related to the Drug Cartels, is indicative of the need for more assassins. The Cartels have launched a brazen recruitment campaign that would put college football recruitment efforts to shame. The Cartels have discovered, though there is greater vigilance and operational push back from Federal Forces against the Cartels, they have the Federal Forces and local police throughout Mexico out manned, out gunned, out financed, and out motivated. Nearly every week, we see reports of weapons caches that are discovered, retrieved, and confiscated that make the insurgent and terrorist caches in Iraq pale in comparison. So with this brazen new approach, they now target for recruitment hungry, fit, motivated, poor young men to take on the mystique and allure of being highly trained as an “international killer”….and business is good.

    Former California Congressman, Leon Panetta, is the last of the senior Obama Administration cabinet nominees to be questioned on the Hill for his potential confirmation as Director of Central Intelligence. A lot has been written and reported on Panetta’s Washington Insider credentials, his managerial skills, intellect, and hard work ethic, and his close relationship with President Obama. That’s swell….but he has been tapped to head our premier intelligence service, during a time of unprecedented challenges internationally, and at a time for those unprecedented challenges to be met with quality, innovative, and risk-taking intelligence gathering and keen analysis. The question that needs to be asked is a simple measure for anyone working in the intelligence field should be able to answer correctly with no hesitation…

Senator Scratchensniff, ..” Mr. Panetta, Welcome, and forgive me for wading right into the fray, but I am hoping you can answer this simple question...and if so, we can go from there...if not, I choose not to waste any more of your, our, or infinitely more important, The American People’s Time..”

Mr. Panetta…”Senator, thank you for welcoming me today...and I am of course here to answer any questions you might have…”

Senator Scratchensniff…” Mr. Panetta, can you please, in order, state the Five Steps in the Intelligence Cycle?”….

Mr. Panetta..”..uh…(shuffles through papers..)..um..Senator, let me get back to you on that…I can assure you, I am well aware of the crucial aspects of the Intelligence Cycle. It is the cornerstone of our ability to indentify key targets and analysis of intelligence, and must be adhered in order for us to continue meeting the challenges of the 21 Century…”

Senator Scratchensniff..”..I’ll take that as a “no”…thank you for coming in today...”

   Many might find that exchange a bit cynical. I can assure you, having worked in the intelligence field as an operator, it is an essential question to ask. At a closer look, this shouldn’t be of any great surprise. Imagine a lawyer not being able to rattle off the importance of Miranda Rights, or a doctor not knowing if the first step in First Aid was “start the breathing, then stop the bleeding..”, or a pilot who didn’t know “Aviate, navigate, then communicate” as a principal rule for dealing with emergency situations...yet, I have no doubt, an exchange with the Nations’ potential premier Intelligence Chief might not sound too far off. Barring any pesky tax issues, or "skeletons", he will be confirmed, because he is a former “Club Member”, but is that really who we need in there to run our top intelligence agency during a time of conflict? Of course not.

   That first day at CIA Headquarters should be in depth, high level discussions on the top five priorities for the institution, and a “who’s who” of America’s enemies and how we plan to defeat them or their agendas. Unfortunately, I fear Mr. Panetta’s first day will be…”forgive me, where is the bathroom?”…and “ok, lets go over that org chart again”, reminiscent of the scene in the movie “Dave” as his handlers try to cram basic civics into his head as he takes on the mantel of “Pretend President”…I hope Mr. Panetta does as well when he becomes our first “Pretend Director” of the CIA.

Oh…and the answer is : 1. Planning and Direction, 2. Collection, 3. Processing, 4. Analysis and Production, 5. Dissemination.