“Hope” is not a strategy unless you are a US congressmen or working in the Obama Administration. The new Reuters article ( http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/22/usa-debt-idUSN1E75L0GC20110622 ) underscores a woeful disregard by our elected federal officials, and their appointed political enablers, on the looming debt crisis and their stark and unconscionable inability to grasp the magnitude of the situation and chart a course for real reform and fiscal recovery. The latest news from the Congressional Budget Office paints a bleak (that’s putting it mildly…more like catastrophic…if you believe in that whole “free-market, capitalism” thing)  future out through 2021 and even more horrific out through 2037 as our national debt will be 101% of our GNP then rising to 150% of GNP respectively. Greece is at 90+% now, many other Euro-Zone countries to follow if present policies/spending continue, and we can clearly see the consternation that has wrought.  (We see Wisconsin and the Public Unions “outrage” over getting voter-goodies cut back as the Canary in a Coal Mine for future budget battles)

Yet, our “esteemed” Congressional representatives, both Republican & Democrat, are locked in ideological “octagon” combat, fixing bayonets on every potential gain or compromise parried by the other side. The classic battle lines are firmly entrenched. Democrats see spending (yes, believe it or not, proposing MORE stimulus spending) as the Keynesian method for a solution, while many Republicans draw their weapons on tax cuts as the Reagan-esque long term solution.  In the bipartisan Debt Commission headed by Vice President Biden, no substantive accords have been reached as election season rolls around (as if it is ever “not” rolling around) and our congressmen hide in defilade to avoid the tough decisions and the required, vital compromise that would benefit our nation.  I don’t expect a great deal from professional politicians. However, I do expect them NOT to be negligent and NOT to sacrifice long term American prosperity for short term political maneuvering for positional survival. This is simply madness.

To add to the rhetoric, you have Fox News opinion shows and MSNBC all ringing their respective claxons, parading their “experts” all pushing the same talking points on “stimulus” vs. “tax cuts”, expose’ after expose’ on why their position is “paramount” and the other is “folly, stupid, and even evil”. Meanwhile, Joe Average American sits back watching his home value, IRAs, savings, and patience diminish while he sees Wall Street and Public Unions get bailed out, subsidized, and coddled by the political elite from both sides. Our sons and daughters continue to enlist in the military as a viable alternative to “not working” as the unemployment rate hovers across the country at 9% (15-20-25% in key markets and regions), continue to get deployed to Afghanistan, or “kinetically operationally involved”  (Obama-speak for military action) in Libya, Philippines or Yemen, and in some Alice In Wonderland scenario, we have Republicans tacitly agreeing with the constraints of the War Powers Act and Democrats touting the supreme power and unilateral authority of the Commander-In-Chief for military operations outside of war…I should have taken the “blue pill”. We now have Republicans talking like Democrats, Democrats sounding like Republicans, and yet when it comes to the single greatest threat to US prosperity, some say National Security, we can’t agree on the color of chocolate…

It is sad to think that our elected officials, swore to uphold and protect, are unable to resolve this Herculean challenge, the deficit. It is unsettling and quite disconcerting to think they just won’t do it out of personal political expediency.  

We as Americans can no longer “hope” our politicians are looking out for our collective and necessary equities. They are self-serving, bombastic, egotistical, ignorant, often dense, and some malicious and the anti-thesis to the American ideal...Republicans and Democrats. Unfortunately, in our political election system, we get [actual] choices between Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dunce. Given “third party” historic track records, the “third” option really isn’t an option in our current political construct.  Those of us no longer beholden to or camped in the “Republicrat” party elite chatter class, “hope” is all we can count on that someone will emerge to lead the US out of certain economic hardship and potentially fatal collapse of America as we know it..

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/06/14/house-panel-releases-scathing-report-on-fast-and-furious-gun-operation-sure-to/

It appears Operation Fast & Furious (see link above) is unraveling at greater speed every day. After the report on Fast & Furious was recently released by House Oversight and Government Reform Chairman Darrel Issa and the testimony presented by ATF agents during the commencement of hearings today on the “Gun-gate” debacle, the appropriate scrutiny, focus, and eventual accountability for this blown operation, that is now confirmed led to the death of at last one American agent, may finally be coming to light. Given what has already been released, disclosed, and investigated, the supervisory ranks within the ATF, the Justice Department, and potentially the Obama Administration have even more questions directed their way. Who authorized this travesty, what did they know, and when did they know it?

The intent all along of Fast & Furious, as ill-conceived as it may have been, was to release a large amount of military style weapons into the illicit gun-smuggling channels in and around the US-Mexican border region in an attempt to trace them to their prospective end-users, the Drug Cartels. As disclosed in the recent committee report, many within the operational chain for planning were briefed this may lead to civilian or collateral deaths, American and Mexican. Yet the ATF leadership (at a minimum, perhaps DoJ supervisors as well) ignored that and appears to have been counting on the guns making it to their intended destinations in order to have surveillance, tracing, and arrests for case building, and eventual federal prosecution. Unfortunately, this is at the crux in the difference in a Law-Enforcement approach versus a military or counter-terrorism (CT) approach regarding the deteriorating conditions on the border. Case building, evidence gathering, and a focus on convictions in court is a much different “prosecution” than that of military and counter-terror operations. It has been my contention, and that of many in the security and intelligence arena (except the present Administration National Security Council), that the situation on the US-Mexican border in not solely a law enforcement problem set…it is a national security, defense, and CT problem set.

US-Mexican history, diplomatic, and cultural equities arguably make this a very complex issue. Add to that, mounting presidential politics for both US and Mexican administrations looming for 2012, pressures from lobbies, both ethno-political and commercial, and the murky world of the drug cartels, it is wise and clear this doesn’t warrant one tool for the problem. There is no one single approach. Given the sophisticated militarization by the cartels of their tactics, operational execution, and overall strategy to keep drugs flowing north and the associated illicit activities, human trafficking, gun-smuggling, and increasing concern of Jihadist terror ties with the cartels, America can no longer view Drug Cartel activities, the violence, mayhem, terror, and instability strictly through a law enforcement prism. “Gun-gate” in the form of Fast & Furious certainly highlights the inherent inequities in a single focus of a law enforcement approach.

 If we compare our operations, for example, in Pakistan or Yemen to those of US activities vis-à-vis the US-Mexican border, we seem to be applying CT and military applications to great effect. In Pakistan, a declared ally of the US (like Mexico), Al Qaeda (Like the Cartels) is a direct and ever present national security threat for US security planners. Pakistan (like Mexico) can not apply its own national security resources to affect the threat from within its sovereignty. Unlike Mexico, our relationship with Pakistan is fractured greatly after the Bin Laden strike and was strained to great tension prior to the Bin Laden hit. There are certainly other issues plaguing Mexico and the US, however, our history, proximity, and geostrategic outlook (for the most part) are in relative sync. Yet, we had no problem violating sovereign airspace, and completely usurping the recognized authorities in Pakistan to kill Osama Bin Laden, along with scores of other terrorists throughout Pakistan, Yemen, and the Horn of Africa. Yet we treat the deteriorating conditions on our own border with a known, maleficent, and highly sophisticated enemy, The Cartels, as if we are trying to ferret out meth labs and street pushers in Minneapolis or Atlanta opposed to if we were targeting terror operators in Pakistan or Somalia…

News flash- The Cartels ARE Terrorists

In the last 6 years, America and Mexico have experienced an unprecedented increase in violence directly perpetrated by the criminal and terror-oriented Cartels. Over 37,000 murders have been committed in the ongoing and expanding Cartel violence. Many might argue the Cartels are strictly a criminal enterprise. However, they are intertwined on so many levels of corruption and nefarious influence across Mexico and, in documented cases, in American law-enforcement and judicial constructs. They are as powerful as any individual nation with their information and intelligence gathering capabilities, have tens of thousands of military style thugs in arms across Mexico and in the southern US, have a Gross National Product revenue that is comparable to many Central European nations in NATO, and yet they operate with the impunity of a highly lethal, flexible, asymmetric trans-national terror organization analogous to Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, Tamil Tigers, or the FARC. Is this even in dispute anymore?  

When one in the US military and intelligence communities speaks of “prosecution”, they are not “case-building” as in the classic law enforcement vernacular. “Prosecution” is the prosecution of a target for destruction, neutralization, or capture. To address Mexican sensitivities and long standing diplomatic ties and relations, we surely cannot unilaterally advance into sovereign Mexican territory to prosecute Cartel targets. However, we have a much closer and more highly developed diplomatic, political and security relationship with Mexico than we ever had with Pakistan, Yemen, or Somalia.  Why is there not a more concerted effort on the part of US and Mexican defense and security planners to jointly apply all tools of our respective arsenals to the Cartel problem? We know where many of the Cartel leaders and financiers are at any given moment, yet we hesitate or remain passive in “collection”, “surveillance”, “source protection” in order to…what? Continue to monitor and report…or is there more that can be done?

There are several reasons the US, and the Mexicans, may not be willing to embrace an approach that encapsulates the same methodologies we apply to other terror organizations. Unfortunately, many of them have nothing to do with the immediate, clear and present, and expanding threat that is the Cartels. Internal, domestic politics of both present presidential administration in the US and Mexico may contribute to the dismissal or minimizing of a more robust and holistic security and defense approach to the Cartel problem. For the US, President Obama and his political handlers have made it quite clear that the US Hispanic vote is paramount if they plan on a second term for Mr. Obama. To increase security or “militarize” the border would certainly raise the cackles of the many empowered ethno-political lobby groups and liberal Hispanic power-brokers. They would prattle away and craft some “Hispano-paranoia” narrative that could threaten the lock on Hispanic votes for 2012. As cynical as this may be, I fear it is as much a planning consideration on why we do not enact greater and more effective courses of action on behalf of US national security against the Cartels directly. (And please, don’t offend the American people with plans to add more border agents to the mix…the border is completely penetrated by the Cartels and the issue is the Cartels, not the border). On the Mexican side, the present political party in power has taken unprecedented steps to attempt to quell the onslaught of Cartel violence. This surely is self-preservation as much as it is “national security”, yet there doesn’t seem to be willingness or any concerted efforts to apply greater Joint operations with the US. Unfortunately, given the debacle of “Gun-gate” I can’t say I necessarily blame their reluctance.  The PRI, the past political power broker in Mexico for nearly 80 years, presently out of power, waits patiently to pounce on the “situation” if the present Mexican President either doesn’t do enough, or does “too much”, gets too cozy with the Gringos, and declares “no Yankee boots in Mexico”…however, the PRI is equally as threatened by the Cartels as is the current administration. This is another analogy with the current situation with Pakistan. The Pakistan militarily needs our assistance, but it is politically untenable for them to fully embrace open joint cooperation with the US.  Also, the Mexicans can make the argument, which US agency’s agenda are we “cooperating” with? We continue to send mixed policy signals on Mexico when we have Secretaries stating “the situation is improving” and “the violence is not that prevalent” like Janet Napolitano or Border Chief, Alan Bersin, compared to FBI Director, Robert Mueller, who recently declared Mexico and the border violence is one of our top national security challenges, coupled with the DoD’s Joint Forces Command report last year prioritizing a “destabilizing Mexico” is on par with a nuclear-armed Iran or an “imploding Pakistan.”

There are numerous, covert, clandestine, and sensitive approaches that we can take immediately in cooperation with our Mexican counterparts that encompass all facets of American power to thwart and curtail the scourge that is the drug fueled Cartels and their grip on our border. Prosecution of targets, leaders, networks in a CT and military/intelligence approach is far more effective, prudent, and necessary than the “prosecution” of some crime, by secondary and tertiary criminal elements in support of the real perpetrators, the Drug Cartels.

Fox News’s William Lajeunesse remains diligent on the story of an ATF operation code-named Fast & Furious that apparently as gone farther south… and I am not referring to geography. It now appears the Department of Justice has taken a dismissive and recalcitrant stance on the numerous subpoenas that have been delivered specifically on the Fast & Furious debacle.  (See links for background)

http://americansentry.blogtownhall.com/2011/06/10/atf_has_a_%e2%80%9cwtf%e2%80%9d_moment.thtml

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/06/13/house-panel-to-weigh-subpoena-authority-in-fast-and-furious-gun-case/

 “In the past two months, the Department of Justice, on behalf of ATF, has ignored subpoenas and seven letters demanding details of the program. It has refused to provide a single document to the oversight committee, according to Chairman Darrell Issa”, reports Fox News. Issa comments further, “Now the question is will DOJ give us the documents or will law enforcement officials, little by little, as whistleblowers give us what we want to show this problem goes to the highest levels," said Issa, R-Calif. "What we would like to do is get the truth out quickly, that it's the judgment of the people involved that Congress needs to question."

Not only has this operation been blown, it seems on its face to have been ill-conceived, poorly executed, and now the post-op damage control on the surface presents itself to be in the “CYA” mode. I am trying to follow the logic with this operation in the first place; Let’s see…Sell really dangerous military style weapons to really crooked gun smugglers to turn around and sell to really nasty cartel members to do nefarious and murderous acts against innocent civilians…all in trying to trace the thread of custody to an end user… and to their surprise, it was members of the drug cartels (???), who then used the weapons in said nefarious activities and Mexican and US officials, along with innocents, are dead because of it. As if we didn’t know who the end user would be…amazing.  Without lifting the Kimono too far, there are other methods that can “trace” end-users in arms sales and counter-proliferation operations without flooding an already dangerous and unstable market, region, and organization with more dangerous weapons. Did anyone actually believe not one of the alleged 1800 weapons might not actually be used in a crime?  

Well, no doubt ATF supervisors are wiping the egg from their eyes. The question becomes, how high up did the egg splash, and what machinations, derrière- covering, and firewalls are forming…and when shall we hear the now famous predicate (i.e. imply) for all “Gate-esque” events…Who knew what, and when did they know it?

Not only was this a risky, poorly concealed, and irresponsible attempt to pursue cartel activities, but, as we see, US agents may have been killed as a result. This makes this not just stupid, but extremely sad as well. Issa’s committee will determine its level of negligence, potential criminality, and who is responsible, and accountable, for this terribly mishandled debacle.  According to reports, this will happen either with or without the assistance of the Holder Justice Department. (The same DoJ under Holder that was berating the CIA for their reluctance to provide timely information on their activities regarding enhanced interrogations)

Oh, what a tangled web we weave…..

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/06/09/justice-officials-in-panic-mode-as-new-testimony-is-expected-to-reveal-depth/

In and around military, intelligence and law enforcement circles, there is a term that is used to exclaim something has gone terribly wrong. It is referred to as a “Whiskey, Tango, Foxtrot, Over!” moment. It is an exclamation which is the radio vernacular -phonetic military parlance for “What The F*ck, Over”. ( I can see my grandmother wincing now)

As Fox News’s William La Jeunesse is reporting, it appears the ATF (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms ) is having a severe “WTF” moment from the blow back of Operation Fast & Furious.

Bottom line Up Front- ATF arranged to have some complicit US firearms dealers sell weapons…lots of weapons (some 1800, including military style automatic rifles) to “unsuspecting” middlemen who then sold the guns to Mexican Cartel smugglers in an attempt to trace the weapons to the actual end-users. However, it quickly got out of control, and many of the weapons authorized for sale to the cartels have been used in actual crimes, including the deaths of American Agents.  As things spun out of control, some field operators with the ATF tried to alert their supervisory leadership, but their concerns went unheeded and no immediate action was taken…that is bad!

This whole kerfuffle (and that is putting it lightly since lives have been lost due to a lack of diligence and supervisory oversight of an operation that went “south”…) with Fast & Furious is problematic on several obvious fronts; Understandable Mexican friction having “Gringo” Feds flooding their country with illicit military style weapons, the deaths of Mexican (and US) officials and citizens at the hands of these guns, poor US internal coordination on a very risky and sensitive cross-border clandestine operation, and apparent negligence by senior Bureau officials once the “WTF” moment was revealed internally. In addition, however not so obvious, is how this botched operation feeds into the Mexican fears of the “behind-the-scenes, hidden black hand” of the “Gringos” in Mexican affairs. It has been widely reported in Mexico, manifesting in quasi-official comments during state visits, speeches, and diplomatic settings, that the US, either tacitly or directly, is feeding the insatiable appetite for weapons and ammunition to the cartels, resulting in the contribution of over 37,000 casualties attributed to the drug violence over the last 6 years.  Though there are virtually endless suppliers and venues for which these weapons could be obtained, there is ample evidence, and Fast & Furious corroborates this, that the US, either sponsored or elements within the “arms” dealing community, have been supplying vast quantities of military weapons, ammo, and other military paraphernalia that directly supports the nefarious activities of the cartels. Proximity and the wide array of “REI” style stores offering their wares just across the border; it is the perfect supplier for a military campaign waged by the cartels. The US authorities may be conflicted as to whether the “situation” in Mexico is a law enforcement issue or a national security and military problem set, but the cartels are quite clear through their actions, indicators, and rhetoric that in their planning sessions, this is warfare. The recent reveling of industrial made armored personnel and “product” carriers built to military specifications in Mexico on behalf of Cartel operations is yet just another clear indicator underscoring the military campaign approach the cartels are taking in this “situation” on the border.

Recently, FBI Director Mueller, in his (re) confirmation opening statements to Congress this week, made it abundantly clear that the increasing, widening, and deepening violence in Mexico, and its spilling over into US cities and towns, is one of the US most pressing national security challenges. Yet, when listening to other Obama Administration officials, DHS Secretary Napolitano and Border Chief Alan Bersin in particular, the “situation” at the border is “hyperbolized” and conditions are actually “improving” according to some of their discussions. So, as the President’s “point people” on domestic US security are giving mixed signals as to the US perspective and “way ahead” for dealing with worsening US-Mexican border violence, the cartels stay the course, improve their hardware, enhance their intelligence and counter intelligence capabilities, and move, operate, and prepare near, and in increasing cases within, US sovereign territory against an outmanned, outgunned, and out smarted adversary in the sparse and ineffectual US border security apparatus.

I, like the vast majority of Americans, revel in the direct action operation conducted by US forces in Pakistan that killed the world’s most wanted man, Osama Bin Laden. He was the embodiment of evil, a mass murderer, a usurper of Islam, and now resides in a well-deserved seat with the Devil for all eternity. For the first time since Barack Obama has been president, I felt a sense of accomplishment from this administration. It was rather cathartic to, if for only a fleeting moment, lift the sense of complete marginalization as a conservative in the Age of Obama, and rally in the good cheer and patriotic pride as the President announced Bin Laden was dead. I was quick to give a hearty and well earned “golf clap” to the Commander-In-Chief and his National Security Team.  I believe this moment in history, certainly for the US Special Operations community, and the SEALs who are alleged to have conducted the mission, will be their “Mount Suribachi-Flag Raising” moment, analogous to when the US Marines famously raised the flag in victory over Iwo Jima in 1945. It is a monumental event, and the President, his team, and the SOF community (you know who you are) deserve all the accolades and recognition on a “job well done”!!

However, this monumental national security event, having been conducted by this particular administration, did not happen in a vacuum, and thus raises some very interesting questions and issues regarding its planning, implementation, execution, and aftermath. Considering the unprecedented shellacking President Bush and his National Security Team took over the last 10 years regarding its approach, methods, actions, and policies dealing with the Global War on Terror by many on the left in our own nation and the leftist cabals around the world, it is now quite an ironic twist of fate that President Obama and many of his Beltway, media, and academic enablers find themselves potential victims to their own success.   Ten years is a long time to amass a great deal of congressional speeches, editorial articles, “bestselling books”, lecturer circuits, Sunday Morning talk shows, MSNBC “hate sessions” all cataloging, citing, capturing, commiserating, condemning, vilifying, accusing, damning, and charging the “crimes” committed by the Dark One, George W. Bush, and his Nazi-esque Neo Con cronies, such as Wolfowitz, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, and others prosecuting the “unjust, unilateral, and illegal” War On Jihadist Terror. Now we see MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell is waving the Hawkish Left Flag, touting the Democratic Party is the Party that “wins” wars. (You just can’t make this stuff up)

Though I applaud Mr. O’Donnell and his leftist, democratic base (all 8 of them, at last ratings tally) to “come in for the big win” and join the fight against terror after so many years of crying foul to methods, techniques, and policies devised, implemented, and carried out by President Bush and his team, the new Battle Cry of the Left smacks of hypocrisy, hubris, and a lack of humility (we won’t even address the lack of a “hat tip” to President Bush for tee-ing up the success…but that can wait) It reminds me of the Chicago Bears of the late 80s/early 90s when Jim McMahon, Walter Peyton, and the rest of the Bears offense would march the ball down the field from their own 8 yard line, then when on the opponents 2 yard line, they would bring in William “The Refrigerator” Perry for the score. In this analogy though, it is President Bush as McMahon, and Refrigerator Perry is the “SEALs.” Yet we see Perry’s defensive line coach, the team general manager, and the water boy and agent still dancing in the end zone after the offense has showered and gone home. To add to the buffoonery, we see all the defensive coaching staff on the local TV stations now touting the accomplishments of the defense, and how “defense wins football games”…blah, blah.. There are a lot of questions that we will not see the Main Stream Media ask or ponder seriously  as the Left establishment, which includes the MSM, the academics, and political enablers of this administration…for example;

1.       What is the legal, international jurisprudential difference between what President Bush conducted in the UN-sponsored, coalition-backed invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the complete unilateral, clandestine, military insertion of US forces into a sovereign allied nation?

2.       After many Democratic congressional members actually voted for supporting US troops to take action in Iraq, and then Senator Obama’s staunch opposition to US intervention, President Obama did not consult with Congress in this unilateral military action.

3.       The direct assassination of an individual by the US is strictly prohibited under the long standing Leftist Democratic interpretation of Executive Order 12333. Yet, President Obama himself, on national television, announced very proudly (understandably so) that he ordered the military action.

4.       For years the debate over Enhanced Interrogation Techniques ("torture" when translated into “liberal”) was the moral linchpin used by the Left to demonstrate how the Bush Administration “didn’t get it”, was “wrongheaded” and it was “not in America’s best interest” to use these techniques under any circumstances. Now that it appears (albeit, not definitive) that these techniques may have led to the location and eventual killing of Bin Laden, what is the present Administration’s position on these techniques, and can they say decisively that they will never be used in any circumstance?

5.       Where are Barbara Boxer, Sean Penn, Cindy Sheehan, Michael Moore, and Keith Olbermann during this “unjust, unilateral, and illegal” action? Can we expect any “Go to H@ll” speeches to Mr. Obama from the "opinion" section on MSNBC?

Now that  President Obama “clarified” our rationale for “kinetic action” (=war) in Libya, and the paragon of military organizational effectiveness by consensus, NATO, will be charting the “way ahead” for the Western World on behalf of the US, we Americans should exhale with a collective sigh of relief.  However, contrary to popular belief, “a tasked passed” is not a task completed.

Because the US possess military and intelligence assets that significantly enable battlefield awareness and the accurate prosecution of targets, NATO will no doubt keep the US piece of the military campaign in Libya very close…which means, as long as NATO is involved in events/operations in Libya, the US will be intrinsically linked throughout. The idea that we can cut and run, or somehow diminish our profile, and responsibility, with regards to military actions in Libya, despite the National Command Authorities marching orders from the Commander-In-Chief, is folly.

Militarily, this is far from over. Ghadaffi has, as of today, greatly slowed the “rebel” advance toward the small town of Nawfaliyah, 120 km (75 miles) east of Sirte (Ghadaffi’s hometown). With the caveat of “no ground forces” already placard on the NATO play book, the Libyan dictator’s ability to use cover and concealment with both urban terrain and his own citizens in the form of human shields, make “clearing” his forces a great and tangled challenge.

Politically, this has already shown signs of friction, missed expectations, or perhaps a bit of “buyers” remorse. We are all being peppered with the drum beat of “legitimacy” and “broad coalition”, and “international backing” etc..we can all recite the UN resolution numbers , 1970, and 1973…and that the Arab League has “blessed” the incursion…however, apparently, several Arab representatives and spokesmen have now turned the corner on the support, and are waxing on about proportional force, civilian casualties, and  concerns of “Western” (read “Crusader”) influence and meddling.

Now, the “Thot Plickens.”  The issue of greater concern for US national interest, and our more focused concern regarding the War on Jihadist Terror, is something the “Bugger Eaters” have already discovered, and was articulated so famously  (or infamously) by former Obama Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanual; never let a crisis go to waste. Jihadist Terrorists are very adept at exploiting the instability, lack of governance, and chaos that defines much of their operating areas, strongholds, and training sites. From Afghanistan to Yemen, Balachistan to Somalia, Terror planners have been targeting countries, regions, and transnational areas of dispute and strife in order to blend in and use the instability and strife as a cover and white noise for their nefarious planning and activities. Enter Libya….

As Libya becomes more mired in military crisis, chaos, and uncertainty, one thing for certain is the desire for Jihadist Terror elements to exploit the confusion and instability. Ghadaffi spent many years stockpiling weapons and hardware, perhaps for this eventuality; being removed from office by force. The rebels have retaken land. With that land comes some military facilities…and with that comes great concern and vulnerability to the US. Though the rebels may have heart, they may not have enough of them (hearts) to properly guard and secure these many military sites. These sites no doubt house weapons systems, ammunition, and other material that if in the wrong hands, can be of considerable concern for US forces. If smuggled out of Libya, they could be of great concern for whatever terrorists choose to target with them.

Enter al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).  According to the report below, AQIM operatives have seized and smuggled out Surface to Air Missiles (SA-7s) from a Libyan Air Base.

http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/al-qaeda-snatched-missiles-in-libya/story-e6frfku0-1226028543204

A quick Google search gives us the nature, intent, and operational history of this Al Qaeda cell in North Africa.

• On 15 October 2006, in Sidi Medjahed, Ain Defla, Algeria, assailants attacked and killed eight private security guards by unknown means.

• On 7 April 2005, in Tablat, Blida Province, Algeria, armed assailants fired on five vehicles at a fake road block, killing 13 civilians, wounding one other and burning five vehicles.

• On 12 February 2004, near Tighremt, Algeria, Islamic extremists ambushed a police patrol, killing seven police officers and wounding three others. The assailants also seized firearms and three vehicles.

• In February 2003, 32 European tourists were kidnapped. One died, 17 hostages were rescued by Algerian troops on 13 May 2003, and 14 were released in August 2003.

• On 23 November 2002, a group of Algerian soldiers was ambushed. Nine died and twelve were wounded.

Since 2007

• On 30 July 2009, at least 11 Algerian soldiers were killed in an ambush by Islamic extremists while they escorted a military convoy outside the coastal town of Damous, near Tipaza.
• As of March 2010, an Italian national, Sergio Cicala, and his wife are still being held hostage.

• On 21 March 2010, three militants were killed by security forces near El Ma Labiod, 35 km from Tebessa.

• On 26 March 2010, three militants were killed while another was captured by security forces in Ait Yahia Moussa, 30 km from Tizi Ouzou.

• On 14 April 2010, according to Algerian officials, at least 10 militants were killed since a counter-terrorist operation started in Bordj Bou Arreridj wilaya. It is known that the operation is still going on. Top militant Abdelmalek Droukdel could be surrounded with other militants, a military spokesman said.

• On 16 September 2010, seven employees from Areva and Vinci are kidnapped in Arlit, Niger (five French, one Togolan and one Malagasy). The capture was claimed on 21 September by AQIM in a communiqué published in Al Jazeera.

When I was assigned to European Command, I had the displeasure of working on this group, and knowing firsthand the levels of their ruthlessness and determination.  There is no doubt in my mind they not only would steal them amidst the instability and confusion, but they would certainly use them against military, more preferably commercial, targets if given the chance.

This is not a good development.

News outlets are reporting a 35 year old US Northern Arizona University anthropology professor is back safe with her family after a nearly 24 hour ordeal where she was abducted and kidnapped by armed men in Ciudad Juarez on 12 March.

She is very…very… lucky!

She was victim to a classic yet rapidly growing criminal tactic throughout Mexico and Latin America called “express kidnapping.” Essentially, the victim is briefly surveilled, assessed, and then abducted for the sole purpose to then coerce them to cough up their ATM or credit card PIN to briskly and effortlessly drain money from their bank accounts. The idea is to make it as quick and disposable as possible, within 12-24 hours, thus minimizing any forensic footprint, evidence trail, or long term kidnap logistics for the “bigger money”.  It is not new…the bad guys are just getting much better at it. Unfortunately, it is not always a “harmless”, “in-and-out” venture the would-be abductors are wishing for. Many novice criminals, drug addicts, and “desperados” are not so efficient and flawless, leading to scores of deaths, serious injuries and maiming, mostly affecting the local populace.

However, it appears this express kidnapping falls lock step with an increasing and disturbing trend. The criminals understand there are those that, despite the increasing coverage and exposure to the real dangers to Americans in Northern Mexico, and the decrease in tourist dollars, are driven, compelled, even called to continue their respective works in Mexico. Many of them are the remarkable missionaries, pastors, priests, and church volunteers that provide crucial and sustained assistance in the form of housing, medical aid, food, education, and most importantly, hope, to a growing marginalized and victimized indigenous population in Mexico. What makes it is so remarkable is what drives these people to do “God’s” work, or to continue vital academic and field work, and not be deterred by the unstable and violent environs in many areas where they operate.

It has been my experience briefing scores of those very folks compelled to do God’s work that they are not persuaded by risk-analysis, regression tables, intel reports, or State Department OSAC threat reports. They do not do a “bottom line” cost –benefit analysis, nor are they not aware of and astute to the dangers. The irony is, many of the missionaries, church volunteers, professors, and non-profit workers know the area in such away that would make a CIA Case Officer jealous. They are not entirely naïve (though some certainly are), and many understand the inherent and rising risk in their calling.  

I clearly understand there are those that simply will not be deterred, convinced, or “bothered” with the fact and awareness of real risk and potential danger to their vocations, passions, and callings. My best advise to those drawn, called upon, driven, and even naïve to doing their “life’s work” is to then take steps to best mitigate their potential exposure to those nefarious characters that might see them as an express kidnap candidate. Here a few steps you, or a loved one, colleague, friend, or someone who could be in harm’s way or elevated uncertainty can take immediately;

1.      Simply reduce your signature on their profile matrix…once they know you are an American, sadly, your score just went up. If possible, and you can do so, speak Spanish as much as possible, minimize and dampen any ostentatious, flashy, or classically “American” clothing. Pocket your Rolexes, or your Gucci glasses and handbags. Though it may not be your style, it may be of those “suits” visiting or accompanying you to your work site. Insist they tone down their profiles as well.

2.      Avoid predictability. Break up your itinerary, daily schedules and routine as much as possible.

3.      Leave your schedule/plans with a trusted agent. Departure times, arrival times, route taken, secondary routes if necessary, phone checks along the way, and emergency info if something does go down.

4.      Know how to dial your cell phone both in-country and for international calls. It is most likely your belongings, especially cell phones, will be confiscated. However, their may be a moment or window to at least make a call or send a quick text with information that could lead investigators or assistance in a vital first direction.

5.      Never “make a stand” on your ATM/Credit Card PIN. There are hills to die on…this is not one of them. Remember, most street ATMs have a $300-400 limit, as do credit cards. If you are swept onto this ride, the cost will be no more than about $400 bucks. If you resist, the cost goes up exponentially. Again, these are desperate, often novice, even strung out criminals. They most likely will not be rationale or willing to deal with your recalcitrance.

6.      Always be collecting information and assessing the situation. Because these abductors may not be the sharpest tools in the shed, they may be sloppy. Though you have to make this decision yourself, and balance it with the present danger with which you are in, but escape may be possible provided the “planets align.” If you are older, and they are younger…escape is probably not an option.

7.      Always be asking for something and playing on possible compassion. Ask for water, food, a blanket; don’t let them ever forget you are a human being…with family, loved ones, and a soul.

8.      Mitigation is always your best response option. In potentially risk prone areas, or when risk is elevated in your regular work areas, take the small steps early on to best deter, thwart, minimize, or best cope with any possible threat. Enacting your plan is always easier and more effective than reacting to the other guy’s plan.

I highly encourage any Americans doing business in Northern Mexico to understand, though they may not see it, or want to admit it, Mexico is a much more dangerous and risk prone place than it was 10 years ago. For some, it was bad then, but now (and over the last 5 years, exponentially so), it is becoming increasingly more unstable, unpredictable, and potentially dangerous where it was not before. And yes, that even means in your apparent tranquil, benign, quiet, undisturbed little hamlet where you have been doing God’s work for 20 years. Be prudent. Update your reality rolodex, and take heed for yourself and your fellow comrades. You needn’t be overly cautious, yet you can’t remain Pollyanna about the situation in Mexico anymore either.

Mexico is a different place when you may have started there all those years ago. To accept that is a good first step.

We are watching unprecedented events unfold before our eyes…very powerful political forces are being challenged to their very core…crony and immoral regimes and structures that have been in place for decades, strangling freedoms, choices and aspirations, of millions their citizens along with hording billions in the People’s money. Regimes that have coveted disproportionate amounts of raw political power, dictating to large swathes of the majority against their will and those of legitimate opposition movements are clearly ignoring the rule of law, participating in stark political and social subversion, and squeezing their dominate influence and control over media outlets to shape the narrative to bolster their subversive, unruly, and politically unpalatable rhetoric and propaganda….

…and you thought I was referring to Libya, Egypt, Yemen, or Bahrain….

No! I am referring to Wisconsin and Indiana.  

Things that Libyan regime and Wisconsin/Indiana Democrats/Union Members have in common:

-Decades old political minorities acquiring disproportionate power through propaganda, unsavory political pressures, and class/tribal warfare and misperceived social/political imbalances.

- Ignoring the Rule of Law by taking steps in complete antithesis of their constitutions, accepted political norms, and common social decency and morality.

-Both parties tout delusionary grievances against legitimate complaints against the establishment.

-Using indigenous and home grown loyalists that are fomenting disruption, political chaos, and civil disobedience to create a false sense of urgency and thus legitimizing unprecedented actions in the name of “social justice”.

-Busing in supporters/mercenaries.

-Feign attempts to hold on to the dying institutions that fomented much of the disdain and anger that has legitimate citizens rising up and saying “enough is enough”.

- Complete and utter complicit media outlets that distort, shape, alter, and obfuscate widely known facts in a pathetic attempt to hold on to the slipping reins of power.

-Histories replete with violence, intimidation, and strong arm political chicanery in the name of “social justice”.

-Both hate Fox News

“A Secret is a secret if only one entity knows about it…”

According to Fox News, America is involved in a “secret covert war” in Guatemala training Guatemalan Elite Forces with US Green Berets. http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/12/14/americas-war-secretly-trains-guatemalan-forces/

Covert operations aim to fulfill their mission objectives without any parties knowing who sponsored or carried out the operation. Apparently, our efforts in Guatemala are now not so “covert.” In the age of Wiki Leaks, sophisticated internet and cyber hackers and droves of “Matrix” wanna-be computer enthusiasts around the globe garnering sympathy for Julian Assange and his “crusaders of truth” against the US government during a time of war, it becomes painstakingly apparent that the traditional, standard, and lockstep procedures for protecting sensitive programs, information, and sources are becoming obsolete. Add to this the atmosphere of “leaking” at the highest levels of our security, intelligence, and military apparatus by vetted “anonymous sources” and “off the record” comments which contribute to the intelligence collection pursuits by hostile or less than friendly states, transnational actors, and criminals who clearly want to exploit, expose, and in some cases, deliberately injure the US and its national objectives and security.

It all adds up to the old adage that “loose lips, sink ships.” This is no less true in the Information Age with American foreign policy issues and concerns, intelligence sensitivities, or military plans and intent. Just because it is not playing out in some Film Noir back drop with enemy agents skulking around back streets and alleys, meeting unsavory contacts and betraying the trust of their nations and consciences does this type of information being “released” become any less insidious, dangerous, and traitorous.

Those “gringos” located in the spot mentioned in the article conducting this very specific training against the cartels have been exposed. The cartels have proven to intimidate, torture, and murder those who show even a modicum of resistance to their nefarious agendas.  Unlike the heretofore reluctance of the cartels to bring their fight to US soil out right (though there is increasing evidence of their incursions and activities widening and deepening in the Southern US in support of drug trafficking), on the border of Southern Mexico/Northern Guatemala all bets are off, and the cartels have the ungoverned, unenforced expanses of the jungle environs to identify, track, locate, intimidate, and eliminate any and all threats to their complex and highly orchestrated operations and logistics in Guatemala with little to no scrutiny from either Mexico or Guatemala authorities. Like our battle against Islamic Jihadists, the war with the cartels is being parceled and rhetorically minimized perhaps for politically palatable and diplomatically sensitive purposes. Unfortunately, neither the cartels nor the Islamic Jihadists got that memo, and they continue to wage a real and very dangerous war against US interests, sovereignty, and the safety and well being of our citizens, both home and abroad.

The enemy no longer has to hunt for our ships to sink after loose lips reveal sensitive information…give it time, and information will be disclosed where they can be located and terrorized right in our own back yard.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/10/18/afghanistan.bin.laden/index.html?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

Rule One: The old axiom for espionage and intelligence intrigue says, “There may be friendly nations, but there are no friendly intelligence services.”

In the case of Pakistan, neither the intelligence service, nor the nation, is friendly to the US. It is widely accepted that Pakistan, primarily its senior leadership, reluctantly accepts American assistance and influence, probably as a counter balance to India and its regional impact in Sub-Continent and the Northern regions of South East Asia. Since the US failed to capture or eliminate Bin Laden at Tora Bora back in 2001, there have been numerous rumors of his “general whereabouts.” However, as the attached link highlights, the US and NATO forces have captured or killed significant cells of AQ leadership both in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and US Special Operations have a global pursuit mission that has successfully eliminated several senior and influential personalities within both AQ and AQ-inspired organizations from Yemen to The Philippines. The US Spec Ops community has proven on at least a dozen occasions that the most dangerous job in the world is being the # 3 leader in AQ.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/07/pentagon-pakistani-intelligence-agency-supporting-terror/

In the grand scheme of things, perhaps the Pakistani Inter-Service Intelligence Agency (ISI) has Real Politick reasons for keeping its ties with the Taliban (an organization they helped to create and operationalize against the Soviets 30 years ago, see article above). Pakistan surely realizes the increasing threats from Iran for regional hegemony have already encroached into Pakistan’s spheres of influence, US de facto control of Afghanistan and swathes of western Pakistan (within Predator range from launch points within Afghanistan), and maintaining a surrogate insurgency/clandestine guerilla force to do their bidding throughout their area of operation (AOR) in the model of Hezbollah, as Lashkar-e-Taiba was in the November 2008 Mumbai attacks in India against western targets.  On top of this simmers a young, disaffected, and increasingly angry populace fueled by Madrasas and elements of radical Jihadists political and militia strains in constant ideological, and often actual, conflict over the political landscape, perspective, and realities of Pakistan’s power brokers and the direction they will steer Pakistan internally and internationally, namely the military, the intellectuals, and the intelligence services.  In Afghanistan and parts of Waziristan, where the tribal forces control huge swathes of territory and Loyajirga (assembly of traditional Afghan Chieftains which assembles to settle the problems of the country) is the political reality, many of the central governments actions, approaches, and final authority are often not recognized, or if so, not fully adhered to. The ISI’s tacit influence, if not direct operational control, of militant and terror elements within the Taliban does not warm the hearts of US operational and intelligence mission planners. This increasingly skeptical and strained relationship will eventually lead US planners and policy makers to shift focus from a Pakistani based solution, to perhaps a hybrid of internal Afghan, International Security Assistance Force, and heretofore non-considered actors, such as Indian security and intelligence assets. This of course, in an open and non-covert way, would be a huge shift in US policy vis-à-vis the Sub-Continent and US-Indian relations. Given the inability or unwillingness of the Pakistanis to level the playing field with a recalcitrant Intelligence Service, formally ignored or “out-of-the-question” courses of action might be up for consideration…or at least should be.

For those policy purists gasping at a sizable shift in US-Pakistani relations for a more concerted, and potentially viable relationship with the Indians on this subject…see Rule One.

The hypocrisy of the Liberal Left is astonishing…and disgusting.

Organizations like NOW, or in the case of the NAACP and the Black Panther intimidation case in Philadelphia in 2008, do two things that whittle away at real discrimination, intimidation, and lowering the standard for civil discourse; It degrades the moral high ground for which, presumably, these organizations exist, and opens the flood gates to those prone to prejudice, injustice, verbal assaults, and marginalizing minorities….Like Jerry Brown!

Isn’t it the liberal left self-touting they are the voice of the downtrodden, societies “victims”, and “equality?”

What a crock!

Yet, there will still be hundreds of thousands of “enlightened” liberal leaning women that will vote for a man who, when thinking no one was listening, called a public woman figure a wh*re  ….A WH*RE!!

…and the Liberal Left women hide behind Jerry Brown’s “record”…well, I guess Mussolini did make the trains run on time….and Hitler invented the VW bug…I guess Liberal women can forgo decades of gender parity efforts and true advancement for women (before she was slandered by the "enlightened" left as a prostitute, Meg Whitman was the CEO of a large company…remember?) to support a leftist, union, big government hack like Brown to…what..advance women more? Advance them where?...more servitude to big government, Nanny-State political agendas, and the freer more loose use of the word “wh*re?”

What else is Jerry Brown saying when he thinks no one is listening?

Whatever it may be, women who vote for Jerry Brown will get exactly what they reap…and deserve.